（原创）日本疫情报告 Report on the COVID-19 pandemic in JapanIssuing time:2020-06-16 14:01Source:original 自 4 月 7 日宣布日本政府“紧急事态宣言”后的近一个半月，感染人数大幅减少趋势，从高峰期的4月11日，新增感染人数达714人，到进入5月以后的5月10日到5月24日，连续15天新增感染者在百人以下。政府以「最近一周内10万人内新的确诊人数达0.5人以下」为标准，5月14日提早解除其中39县的紧急事态宣言，关西地区的大阪、京都、兵库也在5月21日晚间专家会议后解除，而位于首都圈的东京、埼玉、千叶、神奈川，以及北海道等5都道县则在5月25日正式解除。 至此，日本全境 47 个行政区正式全面解除紧急状态。 Nearly one and a half months after the announcement of the Japanese government's "Declaration of emergency" on April 7, the number of people infected decreased significantly. From April 11, the peak period where the number of new infections reached 714, and from May 10 to May 24, the number of new infections for 15 consecutive days was less than 100. According to the standard of "fewer than 0.5 new cases per 100,000 people in the past week", the government decided to lift the emergency declaration of 39 counties on May 14th, and the emergency declaration of Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo in Kansai region was also lifted after the expert meeting in the evening of May 21, while the five counties in the capital circle, such as Tokyo, Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa, and Hokkaido, were officially lifted on May 25. So far, 47 administrative regions across Japan formally and comprehensively lifted the state of emergency.
截止紧急事态宣言解除一周后（5月30日）的数据，东京都内的新增患者数量仅为14人，可以观察到，疫情在近一个月内都控制效果显著。 According to the data one week after the release of the emergency declaration (May 30th), the number of new patients in the Tokyo metropolitan area was only 14. It can be observed that the control effect of the epidemic was significant in the past month.
其观察指标包括新出现阳性患者数，一周单位阳性者增幅，重症患者等。 The observation indexes include the number of new positive patients, the increase of positive patients in one week, and severe patients.
https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en
WHO（世卫组织）总干事谭德塞也在紧急事态解除当日25日在瑞士日内瓦总部召开新闻发布会时，对日本的新冠病毒措施给予了肯定。他赞扬道，”高峰时单日确诊病例超过700例，而现在则减少到40例左右，死亡病例也比较少。日本的抗疫措施是成功的”。 WHO (World Health Organization) Director General Tedros Adhanom also affirmed Japan's Novel coronavirus measures in the press conference held in Geneva, Switzerland on 25th, the same day that the emergency was lifted. "At the peak, there were more than 700 confirmed cases a day, but now they are down to about 40, and there are fewer deaths," he praised. Japan's anti-epidemic measures have been successful.
由此我们可以得出结论： From this we can conclude: 日本政府以其独有的防疫策略，加上民众万众一心的配合，获得了抗疫阶段性成功。 The Japanese government, with its unique epidemic prevention strategy and the concerted efforts of the public, has achieved initial success. ——————————————————————————————————————
日本防疫的成功，笔者认为可以主要归因于以下三点 The success of Epidemic prevention in Japan can be attributed to the following three points.
第一， 理性务实的传染病专家主导公共卫生政策 在日本，厚生省集结了真正懂行的技术官僚，正是因为指导抗击疫情战略的是真正有决策力、判断力的政府官员，才使政策可以推行的精准到位。 First, rational, pragmatic infectious disease experts lead public health policy In Japan, the Ministry of Health and Welfare has assembled truly knowledgeable technocrats, and it is precise because the strategy is guided by government officials with real decision-making and judgment that policies can be implemented with precision.
日本独特的三密政策： 作为日本政府厚生劳动省独自出台的新型冠状病毒感染对策，是“3密”的排除。即为密闭、密集、密接三要素。作为感染扩大的抑制对策，要求设法减少①换气不好的“密封空间”②聚集多数人的“密集场所”③在附近说话和发声的“密切场合”这三种情况。东京都知事小池百合子一直积极的呼吁市民减少3密，极大的增加了民众的认识度和接受度。 The novel coronavirus infection strategy, which was issued by the Ministry of Health and Labor Ministry of Japan alone, is the "3 Dense" exclusion. That is, airtight, dense, and close. As a countermeasure to control the spread of infection, it is required to reduce the following three situations: ① the "sealed space" with poor ventilation; ② the "dense place" where most people gather; ③ the "close place" where nearby speech and vocalization occur The governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, has been actively appealing to the public to reduce the number of secrets, greatly increasing the awareness and acceptance of the public.
日本的紧急状态宣言没有宣布过任何强制性措施，只是政府向百姓“要请“自肃”。而这种自肃可以达到效果，可以说是极具日本特色的。这种约束，与其说是所谓的“高素质”“不给别人添麻烦”，不如说是“配合度高”“不愿做群众中的异类”。 Second, the Japanese have a high degree of cooperation under the education of collectivism Japan's declaration of emergency did not announce any mandatory measures, but the government asked people to“自粛”(Jishuku), and this Kind of Jishuku can achieve the effect, which can be said to be very Japanese characteristics. This kind of restriction is not so-called "high quality" and "no trouble to others", but rather "high degree of cooperation" and "unwillingness to be a different kind of people".
在日本社会，“读空气”的约束力可能比政策约束力更强，政府的政策可以反对可以无视，但“空气”可没几个人会不读。大多数人自肃不出门是怕“给别人添麻烦”，更多的是怕承受异样的眼光。而异样的眼光究竟有多大杀伤力，只要是在日本生活的人应该都能理解。因此，羊群效应可以说起了主导作用，因为“大家都这么做了”而自己也自觉地遵守，相比尊崇个性、独立的西方社会来说，日本人的集体主义观念倒是成就了政策的有效实施。 Most people don't go out because they are afraid of "causing trouble to others" and afraid of being judged differently. Anyone living in Japan should be able to understand just how much damage an alien vision can do. Therefore, the herd effect can be said to play a leading role, because "Everyone did it" and consciously complied with by themselves. Compared with western society that respected individuality and independence, the collectivism concept of The Japanese made the effective implementation of the policy.
In Japanese society, the binding force of "reading air" may be stronger than that of policy. The government's policy can be opposed and ignored, but few people will not read "air". Most people don't go out because they are afraid of "making trouble for others" and Afraid of being judged differently. Anyone living in Japan should be able to understand just how much damage an alien vision can do. Therefore, herd behavior can be said to play a leading role, because "everyone has done this" and they consciously abide by it. Compared with the western society which respects individuality and independence, the Japanese collectivism concept has achieved the effective implementation of the policy. 第三：日本公共卫生教育优良，群众卫生意识高 其实即便是在疫情发生之前，日本人也是世界上闻名的注重卫生的国家。戴口罩，使用消毒液本也是许多家庭的日常习惯。 Third, Japan has excellent public health education and high public health awareness Even before the outbreak, The Japanese were known as a health-conscious nation. Wearing masks and using disinfectants are also daily habits of many families.
2018年度日本国内口罩的产量和进口量合计约达55.38亿个。口罩为人广泛使用的契机，是1918年的西班牙型流行性感冒；如今，口罩已渐渐成为防止感冒、花粉过敏、流感、灰尘、辐射等的必备卫生用品。另外，从世界范围看，因为新型肺炎、PM2.5问题、中东呼吸综合征（MERS）、埃博拉病毒、排气污染等，口罩的需求量也呈直线上升之势。 营销咨询公司富士经济的调查数据显示，日本2018年的家用口罩销售额达358亿日元。而口罩销量的剧增，则是从2009年甲型H1N1流感在全球范围内大规模流行时开始的。日本一到初春季节，作为花粉过敏的对策而戴口罩的人越来越多；到了夏天，在因开空调而变得空气异常干燥的办公室里，有的人还戴湿口罩上班。日本的便利店和药妆店常年备有四五种口罩出售。 The production and import of masks in Japan in 2018 totaled about 5.538 billion. The occasion for the widespread use of masks was the Spanish influenza of 1918; Nowadays, masks have gradually become essential hygiene products to prevent colds, pollen allergies, influenza, dust, radiation, and so on. Besides, globally, the demand for masks is also soaring due to new pneumonia, PM2.5, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Ebola virus, and exhaust pollution. Sales of household masks in Japan reached 35.8 billion yen in 2018, according to a survey by marketing consultancy Fuji Economics. The surge in mask sales began in 2009 when the H1N1 flu pandemic spread around the world. In early spring, more and more people in Japan are wearing masks as a response to pollen allergies. In the summer, some people wear wet masks to work in offices that are unusually dry because of air conditioning. Convenience stores and cosmeceuticals in Japan stock four or five kinds of masks for sale all year round.
—————————————————————————————————————— 后疫情时代所面临的挑战： Challenges in the post epidemic era: 一、 脆弱的医疗对应状况和疫情再爆发的忧虑 1. Fragile medical response and concerns about re-outbreak
与出现数十万百万规模感染者的欧美各国相比，日本在避免感染爆发的同时也控制了疫情的扩大。与欧美国家相比，日本的感染确认数明显减少。 Compared with Europe and the United States, which have hundreds of millions of infected people, Japan has not only avoided the outbreak of infection but also controlled the expansion of the epidemic. Compared with European and American countries, the number of confirmed infections in Japan is significantly reduced.
根据美国约翰斯•霍普金斯大学的统计等推算，高峰时期每10万人中有1周的新增感染人数，美国为66人，意大利为65人，德国也达到48人。而日本只有2.9人。 According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, the number of new infections per 100000 people in a week during the peak period is 66 in the United States, 65 in Italy, and 48 in Germany. Japan has only 2.9 people. 但是，脆弱的医疗状况也逐渐暴露出来，在经济对策方面也明显落后。尽管最近新感染患者减少，出院患者增加，病床上的紧张状态虽然有所缓解，但针对第2波的医疗和检查仍不完善。感染扩大的“第二波”的可能性还是存在，重整态势是当务之急。日本的PCR检查实施数本身就少，所以感染确认数也少。不过如果回顾在全世界范围内迅速扩大感染的过去4个月，日本至少避免了过度感染(爆发性的感染扩大)，实现了一定的感染抑制。 However, the fragility of the medical situation has gradually been exposed and the economic response has lagged. Despite a recent decline in new infections, an increase in the number of discharged patients and a reduction in hospital bed strain, medical treatment, and examinations for the second wave remain inadequate. There is still the possibility of a "second wave" of a widespread infection, and restructuring is imperative. The number of PCR tests performed in Japan is small, so is the number of confirmed infections. But if we look back at the rapid spread of infection around the world over the past four months, Japan has at least avoided over infection (explosive spread of infection) and achieved some inhibition of infection. 东京医科大学的滨田笃郎教授认为，年内有3次第2波的风险增加，分别是“解除紧急事态宣言后的6月”和“放宽入境限制后”，以及“10月以后”。他还指出:“10月以后迎来秋天和冬天的风险很高。”在以往的冠状病毒感冒容易流行的季节，新型冠状病毒也有可能表现出同样的倾向。 Professor Toichiro Hamada of Tokyo Medical University identified three second-waves of increased risk during the year, "in June following the lifting of the declaration of emergency" and "after the relaxation of entry restrictions" and "after October". "The risks of autumn and winter after October are high," he added. Novel Coronavirus is likely to show the same tendency in previous seasons of coronavirus epidemics.
二、岌岌可危的进出口商贸和旅游业 Second, the import and export trade and tourism are in the struggle
虽然说已经解除了紧急事态宣言，但是对于入境的限制并没有解除。其实政府解除紧急状态本身就有一部分反对的声音，这时再放开国境线，大量人员流动，如果防疫措施不完善，造成了疫情再次大规模爆发，那政府就真的难辞其咎了。 Although the declaration of emergency has been lifted, the restrictions on entry have not been lifted. The government's lifting has some voices of opposition. At this time, if the country's borders are opened, we would witness growing social mobility. If the epidemic prevention measures are not perfect and the epidemic has once again erupted on a large scale, the government will make themselves culpable. 作为第三产业极为完善的日本，随着疫情发生后各国进行封锁，加上日本随后限制外国人员入国，国内首当其冲收到重创的就是国际贸易和观光旅游业。根据相关调查结果显示，当问及与外贸相关的业务的公司是否受到新型冠状病毒感染扩大的影响时，80.9%的被调查者回答“已经受到很大影响”。 As the tertiary industry is extremely perfect in Japan, with the blockade of various countries after the outbreak, and the subsequent restrictions on the entry of foreign personnel into Japan, it is the international trade and tourism that bear the brunt of the country. According to the relevant survey results, when asked whether companies with foreign trade-related businesses were affected by the expansion of new coronavirus infections, 80.9% of the respondents replied: "has been greatly affected." 目前随着疫情在国内得到控制，政府考虑分3个阶段进行缓和。第一阶段的缓和是以商务客人和研究人员的往来为对象，以次逐步恢复贸易正常话。第二阶段是以留学生为对象的缓和，对游客的规制缓解是第三阶段。 Now that the epidemic is under control in Japan, the government is considering mitigating it in three stages. The first phase of mitigation is aimed at business guests and researchers to gradually restore normal trade. The second stage is for foreign students. The regulation of tourists is the third stage.
三、就业形势加速恶化 Third. the employment situation is deteriorating. 仅厚生劳动省已掌握的数据显示，与新冠疫情相关的解雇和停止雇用突破一万人，5月的失业率已超过4月的三倍并在与日俱增。有人担忧完全失业率将恶化到超过08年金融危机后2009年的5.1%。 Only the data already available to the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare show that the dismissal and cessation of employment related to the COVID-19 exceeded 10,000, and the unemployment rate in May has more than tripled in April and is increasing day by day. There are concerns that the complete unemployment rate will be more than 5.1% in 2009 after the 2008 financial crisis.
劳动相关人士中对大量解雇派遣员工的“5月危机”担忧高涨。这是由于季度合同的派遣员工很多人6月底将迎来续约期限，可能在一个月前的5月底被告知停止雇用。 Among labor-related people, concerns about the “May crisis” that dismissed large numbers of dispatched employees have risen. This is because many of the dispatched employees of the quarterly contract will usher in the renewal period at the end of June, and they may be informed to stop hiring at the end of May a month ago.
熟悉劳动问题的律师指宿昭一警惕地表示，“为应对经济下滑，企业方面可能会在恢复活动的时机大量解雇或停止雇用”。
最近因全球需求减少，汽车领域等制造业也在调整生产体制。野村综合研究所的估算显示，最坏情况下2020年完全失业率将恶化至5.6%，新增失业人数预计达220万。制度战略研究室长梅屋真一郎称；“政府的就业政策陷于被动，需要提供支援以唤起旅游业等遭受严重冲击产业的需求。”
A lawyer familiar with labor issues, Ibusuki warned, “In response to the economic downturn, companies may dismiss or stop hiring in large numbers when they resume activities”.
Recently, due to the decrease in global demand, the manufacturing sector such as the automotive sector is also adjusting its production system. According to estimates by the Nomura Research Institute, the worst-case full unemployment rate will deteriorate to 5.6% in 2020, and the number of newly unemployed persons is expected to reach 2.2 million. Director of Institutional Strategy Research, Shinichiro Umeya, said: "The government's employment policy is passive, and it needs to provide support to industries such as tourism that have been severely hit."
———————————————————————————————————— 根据上述分析，面对后疫情时代，日本国内面临的最大危机主要是预防第二波爆发所需对应的赢了设备供给问题、企业持续经营问题以及就业率危机。日本政府在这些方面也在积极采取措施。例如在5月27日安倍首相政府通过第二次修正预算，与第一次修正合计将拿出达到“日本GDP 40%的200万亿日元作为经济刺激政策。凭借这一世界最大规模的对策，保证日本经济度过这次百年不遇的危机”。随着饮食店、商场等公共场所的复工复业，日本国内的经济生活逐渐走向正轨，IACCR也将对日本疫情保持持续关注。 According to the above analysis, in the face of the post-epidemic era, the biggest crisis is mainly to corresponding equipment supplies, the continued operation of enterprises, and the employment rate needed to prevent the second wave of outbreaks. The Japanese government is also actively taking measures in these areas. For example, on May 27, Prime Minister Abe’s second revision of the budget, together with the first revision, will come up with “200 trillion yen of 40% of Japan’s GDP as an economic stimulus policy. The world’s largest countermeasure will give Japanese economy confidence to go through this crisis that has not been encountered for 100 years." With the resumption of work in public places such as restaurants and shopping malls, the economic life in Japan is gradually on track, and IACCR will continue to pay attention to the Japanese epidemic.
李紫潇，龚思颖 2020.6.14
http://forex.eastmoney.com/a/202005291503362047.html https://www.yamatogokoro.jp/column/corona_world/38545/ https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASN5Y6QZVN5YULFA019.html https://www.zhihu.com/question/397213847 https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/ https://www.jcer.or.jp/blog/manotoshiki20200513.html |
