（原创）日本疫情报告 Report on the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan
Issuing time:2020-06-16 14:01Source:original
自 4 月 7 日宣布日本政府“紧急事态宣言”后的近一个半月，感染人数大幅减少趋势，从高峰期的4月11日，新增感染人数达714人，到进入5月以后的5月10日到5月24日，连续15天新增感染者在百人以下。政府以「最近一周内10万人内新的确诊人数达0.5人以下」为标准，5月14日提早解除其中39县的紧急事态宣言，关西地区的大阪、京都、兵库也在5月21日晚间专家会议后解除，而位于首都圈的东京、埼玉、千叶、神奈川，以及北海道等5都道县则在5月25日正式解除。
至此，日本全境 47 个行政区正式全面解除紧急状态。
Nearly one and a half months after the announcement of the Japanese government's "Declaration of emergency" on April 7, the number of people infected decreased significantly. From April 11, the peak period where the number of new infections reached 714, and from May 10 to May 24, the number of new infections for 15 consecutive days was less than 100. According to the standard of "fewer than 0.5 new cases per 100,000 people in the past week", the government decided to lift the emergency declaration of 39 counties on May 14th, and the emergency declaration of Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo in Kansai region was also lifted after the expert meeting in the evening of May 21, while the five counties in the capital circle, such as Tokyo, Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa, and Hokkaido, were officially lifted on May 25.
So far, 47 administrative regions across Japan formally and comprehensively lifted the state of emergency.
According to the data one week after the release of the emergency declaration (May 30th), the number of new patients in the Tokyo metropolitan area was only 14. It can be observed that the control effect of the epidemic was significant in the past month.
The observation indexes include the number of new positive patients, the increase of positive patients in one week, and severe patients.
WHO (World Health Organization) Director General Tedros Adhanom also affirmed Japan's Novel coronavirus measures in the press conference held in Geneva, Switzerland on 25th, the same day that the emergency was lifted. "At the peak, there were more than 700 confirmed cases a day, but now they are down to about 40, and there are fewer deaths," he praised. Japan's anti-epidemic measures have been successful.
From this we can conclude:
The Japanese government, with its unique epidemic prevention strategy and the concerted efforts of the public, has achieved initial success.
The success of Epidemic prevention in Japan can be attributed to the following three points.
First, rational, pragmatic infectious disease experts lead public health policy
In Japan, the Ministry of Health and Welfare has assembled truly knowledgeable technocrats, and it is precise because the strategy is guided by government officials with real decision-making and judgment that policies can be implemented with precision.
The novel coronavirus infection strategy, which was issued by the Ministry of Health and Labor Ministry of Japan alone, is the "3 Dense" exclusion. That is, airtight, dense, and close. As a countermeasure to control the spread of infection, it is required to reduce the following three situations: ① the "sealed space" with poor ventilation; ② the "dense place" where most people gather; ③ the "close place" where nearby speech and vocalization occur The governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, has been actively appealing to the public to reduce the number of secrets, greatly increasing the awareness and acceptance of the public.
Second, the Japanese have a high degree of cooperation under the education of collectivism
Japan's declaration of emergency did not announce any mandatory measures, but the government asked people to“自粛”(Jishuku), and this Kind of Jishuku can achieve the effect, which can be said to be very Japanese characteristics. This kind of restriction is not so-called "high quality" and "no trouble to others", but rather "high degree of cooperation" and "unwillingness to be a different kind of people".
Most people don't go out because they are afraid of "causing trouble to others" and afraid of being judged differently. Anyone living in Japan should be able to understand just how much damage an alien vision can do. Therefore, the herd effect can be said to play a leading role, because "Everyone did it" and consciously complied with by themselves. Compared with western society that respected individuality and independence, the collectivism concept of The Japanese made the effective implementation of the policy.
In Japanese society, the binding force of "reading air" may be stronger than that of policy. The government's policy can be opposed and ignored, but few people will not read "air". Most people don't go out because they are afraid of "making trouble for others" and Afraid of being judged differently. Anyone living in Japan should be able to understand just how much damage an alien vision can do. Therefore, herd behavior can be said to play a leading role, because "everyone has done this" and they consciously abide by it. Compared with the western society which respects individuality and independence, the Japanese collectivism concept has achieved the effective implementation of the policy.
Third, Japan has excellent public health education and high public health awareness
Even before the outbreak, The Japanese were known as a health-conscious nation. Wearing masks and using disinfectants are also daily habits of many families.
The production and import of masks in Japan in 2018 totaled about 5.538 billion. The occasion for the widespread use of masks was the Spanish influenza of 1918; Nowadays, masks have gradually become essential hygiene products to prevent colds, pollen allergies, influenza, dust, radiation, and so on. Besides, globally, the demand for masks is also soaring due to new pneumonia, PM2.5, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Ebola virus, and exhaust pollution.
Sales of household masks in Japan reached 35.8 billion yen in 2018, according to a survey by marketing consultancy Fuji Economics. The surge in mask sales began in 2009 when the H1N1 flu pandemic spread around the world. In early spring, more and more people in Japan are wearing masks as a response to pollen allergies. In the summer, some people wear wet masks to work in offices that are unusually dry because of air conditioning. Convenience stores and cosmeceuticals in Japan stock four or five kinds of masks for sale all year round.
Challenges in the post epidemic era:
1. Fragile medical response and concerns about re-outbreak
Compared with Europe and the United States, which have hundreds of millions of infected people, Japan has not only avoided the outbreak of infection but also controlled the expansion of the epidemic. Compared with European and American countries, the number of confirmed infections in Japan is significantly reduced.
According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, the number of new infections per 100000 people in a week during the peak period is 66 in the United States, 65 in Italy, and 48 in Germany. Japan has only 2.9 people.
However, the fragility of the medical situation has gradually been exposed and the economic response has lagged. Despite a recent decline in new infections, an increase in the number of discharged patients and a reduction in hospital bed strain, medical treatment, and examinations for the second wave remain inadequate. There is still the possibility of a "second wave" of a widespread infection, and restructuring is imperative. The number of PCR tests performed in Japan is small, so is the number of confirmed infections. But if we look back at the rapid spread of infection around the world over the past four months, Japan has at least avoided over infection (explosive spread of infection) and achieved some inhibition of infection.
Professor Toichiro Hamada of Tokyo Medical University identified three second-waves of increased risk during the year, "in June following the lifting of the declaration of emergency" and "after the relaxation of entry restrictions" and "after October". "The risks of autumn and winter after October are high," he added. Novel Coronavirus is likely to show the same tendency in previous seasons of coronavirus epidemics.
Second, the import and export trade and tourism are in the struggle
Although the declaration of emergency has been lifted, the restrictions on entry have not been lifted. The government's lifting has some voices of opposition. At this time, if the country's borders are opened, we would witness growing social mobility. If the epidemic prevention measures are not perfect and the epidemic has once again erupted on a large scale, the government will make themselves culpable.
As the tertiary industry is extremely perfect in Japan, with the blockade of various countries after the outbreak, and the subsequent restrictions on the entry of foreign personnel into Japan, it is the international trade and tourism that bear the brunt of the country. According to the relevant survey results, when asked whether companies with foreign trade-related businesses were affected by the expansion of new coronavirus infections, 80.9% of the respondents replied: "has been greatly affected."
Now that the epidemic is under control in Japan, the government is considering mitigating it in three stages. The first phase of mitigation is aimed at business guests and researchers to gradually restore normal trade. The second stage is for foreign students. The regulation of tourists is the third stage.
Third. the employment situation is deteriorating.
Only the data already available to the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare show that the dismissal and cessation of employment related to the COVID-19 exceeded 10,000, and the unemployment rate in May has more than tripled in April and is increasing day by day. There are concerns that the complete unemployment rate will be more than 5.1% in 2009 after the 2008 financial crisis.
Among labor-related people, concerns about the “May crisis” that dismissed large numbers of dispatched employees have risen. This is because many of the dispatched employees of the quarterly contract will usher in the renewal period at the end of June, and they may be informed to stop hiring at the end of May a month ago.
A lawyer familiar with labor issues, Ibusuki warned, “In response to the economic downturn, companies may dismiss or stop hiring in large numbers when they resume activities”.
Recently, due to the decrease in global demand, the manufacturing sector such as the automotive sector is also adjusting its production system. According to estimates by the Nomura Research Institute, the worst-case full unemployment rate will deteriorate to 5.6% in 2020, and the number of newly unemployed persons is expected to reach 2.2 million. Director of Institutional Strategy Research, Shinichiro Umeya, said: "The government's employment policy is passive, and it needs to provide support to industries such as tourism that have been severely hit."
According to the above analysis, in the face of the post-epidemic era, the biggest crisis is mainly to corresponding equipment supplies, the continued operation of enterprises, and the employment rate needed to prevent the second wave of outbreaks. The Japanese government is also actively taking measures in these areas. For example, on May 27, Prime Minister Abe’s second revision of the budget, together with the first revision, will come up with “200 trillion yen of 40% of Japan’s GDP as an economic stimulus policy. The world’s largest countermeasure will give Japanese economy confidence to go through this crisis that has not been encountered for 100 years." With the resumption of work in public places such as restaurants and shopping malls, the economic life in Japan is gradually on track, and IACCR will continue to pay attention to the Japanese epidemic.