Discussion on Economy Recovery in Post-Pandemic Age
Issuing time:2020-05-15 14:57Source:IACCR Secretariat
Conference Theme:Discussion on economic recovery in the post-pandemic era
Time:10-12am Beijing time 15th,May 2020
Speaker 1 Mr.Qiyandong
Theme: The wakening of small and micro enterprises in the post-pandemic era
The number of patients
China: Confirmed 84464 Cured 79626 Death:4644
Global: Confirmed 4343580 Cured 1577473 Death:297853
The pandemic has been contained within China’ borders yet the world is a life-community and no one is immune when the COVID-19 strike
Destiny community: The case of one superpower must change, stay together so we can live.
During the crisis, we have been thinking about the uncertainties and opportunities brought by the pandemic. Small and medium enterprises ought to think about who they are, what they do in the society and where they are. Is the pandemic a natural or man-made disaster? Because of fast technological progress, such disasters will emerge more frequently, to which humans will have to adapt.
Two phenomena: low incremental efficiency, high idle inventory.
Inventory is the driver of economic development, while stock now faces problems like being static, low quality. Low efficiency of increment leads to waste of resources, causing damage to the environment.
Supply-side reform shall make the most of current inventory to increase growth.
Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises have contributed more than 50% of tax revenue to the economy, 60% of GDP, and from whom more than 70% of technological innovation comes. Let alone they provide 80% of urban employment, and behind 90% of these enterprises are ordinary workers. Small, medium and micro enterprises support the healthy and smooth operation of society. With the advent of the pandemic, small, medium and micro enterprises have low resilience, weak organizational structure, solidified thinking pattern and behavior that all require improvement.
In the post-epidemic era, we must acknowledge a community with a shared future and value.
The pandemic presents both dangers and opportunities.
Seize the opportunity, first condition:
1. Open mind: change business philosophy. Small and medium enterprises should change their original business thinking frame in the face of the epidemic
2. Co-construction: bring opportunities, consumers, suppliers and manufacturers come together to increase their risk tolerance and reduce their vulnerability, so as to ensure their survival under the impact of the pandemic.
3. Altruism: By providing more valuable services to consumers, enterprises can be recognized by the society and the market
4. Symbiotism: strengthen enterprises’ contacts with customers and suppliers, thus establish a concrete and reliable relationship
1. Review a business model . The epidemic brings social promotion. Reconstruct the business model under the original business logic.
2. Re-constructing organizational structure. After the impact of the pandemic, we found that many managers can be replaced by technology or even replaced.
Setting managers reflects distrust of the executors hence the essential goal of organizational restructuring is to reduce the cost of trust.
3. Intelligentize operation and management mode: entering the digital era, the language has a low and complex communication efficiency , while digits is fast-resonsive .Digitalization can solve fundamental problems.
4. In the post-pandemic era, all industries can be done again.
Qi: Embrace the future, the pandemic will slow down the global economy, but on the other hand speed up social development. Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises will choose to change or be eliminated.
Zhu biqing asked Mr.Qi yandong: In a community of Shared future, the economy is no longer a zero-sum game. How can small, medium and micro enterprises achieve win-win cooperation?
Qi answered: a community of a Shared future, the pandemic is containable in China, but its economic recovery is affected by the speed of global economic recovery. Fighting alone is history.
The pandemic has a huge impact on the hotel and tourism industry. Entrepreneurs, owners of small, medium and micro enterprises, usually hold 100% of the equity in the tide of economic development, which forms the ceiling of enterprise development. With the arrival of the epidemic, their responsibilities and obligations are also 100%, and their resistance capacity is obviously weakened.
1.Let the consumer in, consumption is an investment.
Let employees in: contribution is investment.
Let the franchisee in: joining is investment.
They can solve the core problem: the ceiling is the founder. Moreover the ceiling may disappear through diversified cooperation in the future.
2.The original upstream and downstream trade is the currency and goods transaction. Now, these weak relationships are going to become strong connections
3.Fragmented resources, information and consumption behaviors become investment behaviors, and monetary value becomes the last investment behavior .The success rate of the project is improved, and the ability to resist risks is enhanced.
Zhu: Small, medium and micro enterprises are under great impact and their cash flow is broken. Under the macro background of revitalizing the economy, what is the help for msmes?
Qi : the epidemic brings not only the impact of cash flow, but also the extension of unpredictable shock. These can all be quantified in business. The state supports a large number of small, medium and micro enterprises, but their systems are not complete, their qualifications are not formal, they cannot meet the policy standards, and the state cannot rescue them all. Whether wait for the help of the country or fight for a living, enterprises need to open their minds, widen contact with capital and high-quality investors to survive the thorny situation at hand.
Three dimensions: the time dimension, the space dimension, and most importantly the thought dimension.
Speaker 2:Professor Li jing
Theme: Globalization ,this time is different?
Trade in globalization, two countries make two products, for example France and England, wine in France and wool in England. In trade, when production specialization of two countries occurs, there would be a unique point of equilibrium In this point trade brings peace, less government intervention, the invisible hand can play a role. This is the classic model
The new globalization of trade: models change and two countries produce two products. Economies of scale will increase entry costs and change productivity, and some products will be hard to replace, so there are many equilibrium points. In terms of industry competition and built-in trade competition, some points have competition, and some points everyone is winner.
Who are the ideal trading partners?
There is no such thing as a permanent ideal trading partner. In the classical model, both countries are ideal trading partners whereas in the new model, they are not. International competition is essentially industry competition, and industry conflict may lead to international competition. The ideal competition partner is the one ,whose wage is only 50% to 70% of the other.
Conclusion: the progress of your competitors is good for you. Free trade is good
In the new globalization, does the stimulation polic or the invisible hand work?
The United States resorts to tariff policies to protect its own industries with low cost and supports it high-tech industries.
The model's assumptions has changed because the competition between advanced and developing economies has changed.
Does comparative advantage matter? In financial competition, it has no effect.
Does capital have borders? Capital knows no borders only more profits however, it dose optimize the allocation of resources.
The impact of the dome effect: the devaluation of the national currency. Using foreign exchange to pay for transactions will build up debt and the country is prone to financial crises. An appreciating currency hardly encourages exports.
Central American dollarization, more market options emerge, self-protection, long - term packaging.
Capital controls: administrative tools, market tolls.
Whether there is an ideal financial partner: None.
1.In the ocean of capital, you will be drowned if you cannot swim. You don’t need to fight the waves if you're a good swimmer.
2.Financial disputes are demanding and tedious to solve, some countries do not have financial power. America can bully others with its overwhelming might.
3. The super-globalization brought about by the epidemic, which caused a domino effect and made everyone more vulnerable.
The China story and spilling effects has demonstrated the country's credibility, mobilization of reserves, public cooperation and social capacity. It proves that collective action is possible. China's story can tell of China's wisdom and strength.
The rebirth of globalization:
Rule: sustainable development
Attitude: cooperation ,win-win philosophy, better understanding of the world. It emphasizes the ability and value to create public goods, establish supply mechanisms, reinforce the sense of community, and the youth are the future
To quote Mo yan: a wooden bridge can cross a river, a steel bridge can cross a mountain, a bridge of love can take you to the garden of Eden, and a bridge of culture can bridge the distance and connect the world.
Recommended books: global trade and conflicts of interest, the truth of trade: how to build a rational world economy, the conflict of trade, the last barrier: the liberalization of capital account and the internationalization of RMB
Guo jitong asked: whether the globalization of dollars would be affected
Teacher Li answered: two dimensions, many currencies are the bottom of a pyramid, the top is dollars, this system is supported by dollars.
1.This system has it own inertia ,the lower the cost of using money, the more people will use it.
2.As a network of contacts, even if the epidemic hits, dollars will appreciate, and the number of users of dollars is still large. They also trust the liquidity of dollars.
Li's view: other currencies should also ascend from the bottom of the pyramid.
The yuan and the dollar competition: the internationalization of the yuan is to solve our problems, not to kill the dollar.
3、Open creative collaboration：
For us, helping others is helping ourselves. The following model shows the donation process.
Private donors: enterprises and institutions, individuals, social institutions,
Universities：Expertise and hr resources
Public sector donors: enterprises and institutions, social institutions
These donors can donate directly to vulnerable groups through UKDW to prevent some criminals from making illegal profits through fictitious organizations. At the same time, our organization is non-political, we don't want to be associated with politics,and we don't want religious sensitivities to undermine what our organization is about: solving the common problems of humanity.
The social network
UKDW has 400 partner organizations, including: companies, government, social institutions, religious organizations, non-governmental organization, mass media, education and research.
Located in the center of yogyakarta, Indonesia, UKDW has access to all destinations such as places of worship, health services, entertainment, cooking, historical, tourist sites and transportation facilities.
Research laboratories: medicine, biotechnology, architecture, product design, information technology, business.
During emergency assistance: medical, hand sanitizer, antiseptic soap, face mask, basic food packaging
In April 2020, we have donated:About 4,000 medical and non-medical masks, 300 face masks, 400 sets of basic food packages were sent to the elderly and vulnerable communities, about 450 liters of hand sanitizer and antiseptic soap, 12 portable washing machines, and 800 consultation posters.
Hospitals, neighborhoods for the elderly and vulnerable, street vendors, poor urban neighborhoods.
Current pandemic situation (up to 11 May 2020)
Nepal is located between India and China, with a total population of 26,494,504 (2011 census) and an urban population of 50%
The covid-19 pandemic
The first case occurred on January 13
Total 134/ recovered 33/ no deaths
Total PCR test was completed: 17821
Quarantine: 12701 quarantine 153
No severe cases
Nepal does not appear to be ready for a pandemic.
The sudden lockdown (May 24, solstice, 18) lacked contingency planning.
Consumption, supply and housing have been hard hit by migrant workers returning home from abroad
2 million people working in India (15-20% of whom are expected to return home)
Migrant workers returning home from big cities (6 megacities, 11 submetropolises)
The economic impact
Ninety percent of the country's economic activity stopped
A global pandemic could affect Nepal's service sector, (about 57 percent of the country's gross domestic product)
Tourism and hospitality
One of Nepal's largest industries
Accounting for 7.9% of China's GDP (2018)
Nepal to invest 16.5 billion in tourism in 2019 (3% of total investment)
Visitors to Hong Kong were mainly from mainland China, followed by Japan, South Korea and other countries.
Domestic tourism is still in its infancy.
Services: tourism and hospitality
Nepal tour cancelled in 2020 (2 million foreign tourists are expected to visit Nepal)
Hotel occupancy hit record low (95%)
The Nepal hotel association has decided to close the country's tourist standard until mid-November (12.5% of the basic monthly salary)
A total of 3,000 hotels sent staff home because of a lack of revenue.
Three hundred thousand workers in the hotel industry alone have been affected.
700,000 other workers were affected in non-member hotels and restaurants.
The revitalization of strategy
The government has yet to come up with any concrete recovery plan for the tourism sector, though there are few such measures as lowering interest rates on bank loans, which could solve problems in the annual budget due to be announced in June 2020.
Therefore, in this context, the basic guiding framework for the future strategy is proposed;
Graded assessment of pandemic-induced damage in the tourism sector
"Gap analysis: what doesn't work
"Identify areas that need more help
"Policy and economic support from the government (also from donors/foundations)
Within the framework of the basic guidelines, the recovery strategy should include plans and programs for "quality tourism (high-end tourism)".
"Encourage the entry of foreign tourists
"Explore new tourist destinations
"Innovative market policies
To study the influence of covid19 on tourism consumption behavior
"Re-examine the planning of infrastructure standards
Accelerating domestic tourism
Promoting regional tourism
We will promote religious and educational tourism
Service providers are encouraged to invest in domestic tourism
Integrate tourism with infrastructure at the local level
Subsidies for the development of local tourism (new tourism products)
Tax allowance for the next financial year
4.Annisa Hadney: the economic impact of the pandemic on poor communities
Raise public awareness & mitigate the epidemic: expand social support network to enhance prevention efforts in all aspects, and pay attention to food safety supervision and epidemic surveillance.
How is the community responding?
Make use of the zoom platform to coordinate the community
Improve emergency response mechanisms for basic community needs
Produce and distribute ginger drinks to ensure public health
Challenges and countermeasures: challenges and responses to coronavirus: prevention and control measures for enterprises to resume work under the normalization of covid-19 and normalization of prevention and control measures for enterprises to resume work under the normalization of covid-19.
● most cities in China have had no new cases for one consecutive week
● most companies had already started work in March and April
At this stage, the epidemic prevention measures should be adjusted to adapt to the normal situation of covid-19
Ten epidemic prevention tips:
1.The temperature of each employee should be taken before entering the office.
2. Punch in at work: try to use location punch, reduce the use of fingerprint punch, reduce the frequency of interpersonal contact
3. Keep a distance of more than 1 meter between employees
4. Wear a mask throughout the office
5. Use video conferencing whenever possible. If offline meeting is required, the meeting room should be fully disinfected. Before entering the meeting room, everyone should wash their hands before disinfecting. The space between people should be more than 1 meter.
30-60% of people with mild or asymptomatic symptoms are infected
1. The Philippines has established some mechanisms to combat typhoons
2. The Philippine national mission bureau has set several targets for the fight against covid-19 so that people can go back to work, because the previous blockade has affected the economy, so it is now ready to change the mode of the blockade so that at least 50% of the economy can recover in the short term.
YOSHI: Thank you all for your good presentations. Covid19 is far from over. It is now in India and Brazil, and may one day be in Africa. I heard that the Philippines just experienced a typhoon and people need shelter. I would like to know about disease prevention in emergency shelters.
Ms maisara: Yes, we are experiencing a typhoon right now, we have built up the infrastructure to prevent typhoons in the last few years, and the main aim now is to make sure that the government and the private sector are functioning properly, and to reduce the waiting time for tests, to speed up the frequency of tests, to speed up the economic recovery and to try to eliminate the effects of the virus. I'll give you my powerpoint later
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