What stage has the global COVID 19 epidemic reached?

For the past two weeks, outbreaks have continued to spread around the world, with some countries worsening faster than expected.

However, the JPMorgan model predicts that while the global epidemic as a whole is still accelerating, it may be gradually entering a phase of slower growth, with more countries approaching an inflection point.

JP Morgan classified the outbreak into four stages: "early development", "accelerated climb", "late accumulation" and "recovery ".

In a March 24 report, JP Morgan chase & co. (JPM) noted that outbreaks in South Korea, Italy and Iran are in the late stages of accumulation, while India is in the early stages of development, while China is the only country in the global recovery stage.

Meanwhile, Spain, Germany and France are all accelerating their climb, while the us, UK, Japan and Malaysia are at the start of the curve, meaning things will get worse in the coming weeks.

Today, the cumulative number of confirmed Coronavirus cases worldwide has risen from 350,000 on March 24th to more than 1.2 million, and the death toll has risen from 15,000 then to nearly 65,000.In less than two weeks, J.P. Morgan sees South Korea following China into recovery, as countries in the U.S. and Europe that had been on the climb enter a late-stage accumulation phase of slowing infection growth. But it is worth noting that Brazil, Indonesia and the Philippines, with their large populations, are only now entering an accelerated climb, meaning the number of global cases is likely to surge in the coming weeks.

However, J.P.Morgan also said the global outbreak could gradually reach an inflection point within two months, given measures such as blocking cities and reducing social distance.

But the risk now is that signs of a slowdown in the growth of new cases could lead to the early unwinding of strict social alienation measures in the countries concerned, pushing the infection curve back up again.